Mastering Market Uncertainty with Behavioral Insight
WiLL R. Young, CFP® is a distinguished financial expert and passionate surfer whose unique investment approach blends behavioral psychology, Stoicism, and financial analysis. His exceptional results in the Good Judgment Project outperforming leading economists and Wall Street firms, demonstrating the power of this method. This success stems from years of dedicated research into human decision-making and emotional biases that influence financial choices.
Outperforming Experts in Financial Forecasting
In the prestigious Good Judgment Project, he consistently outshines top economists by accurately forecasting market trends such as 30-year fixed mortgage rates and the US Consumer Price Index (CPI). His predictive precision is highlighted by impressive Brier Scores that place him well ahead of the competition, underscoring his mastery of market psychology. The below-mentioned results emphasize his ability to integrate behavioral insights with rigorous financial analysis to forecast complex economic indicators reliably.
Key Achievements:
Achieved a Brier Score of 0.019 for 12-month CPI change prediction (March 2025) vs. median 0.136
Scored 0.042 in forecasting weekly average interest rates for 30-year fixed mortgages vs. median 0.073
Maintained negative relative Brier scores, indicating superior accuracy over peers
Guiding Smarter Investment Decisions
He encapsulates the philosophy: “The best investors don’t let emotions dominate; they follow a plan and wait for the right moments.” Human psychology often leads to costly errors in investing. His approach helps identify and overcome biases such as overconfidence, loss aversion, and herd mentality. By understanding how emotions influence decision-making—particularly through affective forecasting—clients gain the tools to remain disciplined and focused on long-term goals.
Surfing the Waves of Finance and Nature
WiLL R. Young’s love of surfing shapes his investment philosophy. He says, “You cannot control the ocean or the market, but you control how you prepare and respond.” Like a surfer reads the ocean’s waves, investors must interpret market signals to navigate uncertainty. Both pursuits require patience, risk management, and mental resilience.
Focus on What Matters
Stoicism informs his financial strategy, emphasizing control over personal mindset and choices rather than external events. “By embracing a Stoic mindset, investors can face volatility with calm and clarity,” he explains. Drawing on the wisdom of philosophers like Epictetus and Seneca, this approach fosters resilience amid market volatility.
Core Stoic Principles Applied:
Concentrate on controllable factors such as risk management and emotional response
Accept market fluctuations as inevitable and outside one’s control
Maintain internal stability to make clearer, more confident decisions
Pillars of Success
“Having trusted mentors and a financial community is essential for navigating the highs and lows,” he affirms. Success in investing, much like in surfing, often depends on a supportive community and mentorship. He stresses the importance of advisors and peer networks to refine strategies and sustain confidence through market cycles.
Core Areas of a CFP®-Based Financial Pan
Cash Flow and Budgeting
Investment Planning
Retirement Planning
Tax Planning
Estate Planning
Risk Management / Insurance Planning
Education and Goal Planning (if applicable)
Ongoing Monitoring and Adjustments
Unlock Valuable Insights
Grounded in Nobel laureates Kahneman and Tversky’s research, his work empowers clients to understand their biases and invest with greater confidence and resilience. Want to learn more? Dive into his podcasts now.